Is EM PE Dead?

When Portico launched four years ago, I asked “Is Emerging Markets Private Equity Dying?

There’s no need to ask the question anymore.

It’s dead.

You don’t have to take my word for it — the DFIs are telling us so.

For instance, Clarisa De Franco, Managing Director for Africa Funds, Funds and Capital Partnerships with CDC Group, recently told PEI:

I also think we will see fewer new funds emerge as fundraising becomes challenging and consolidation plays out. Our strategy now is two-fold: continue our engagement and innovation with teams that are addressing specific market inefficiencies (including first-time teams) and to back strong-performing existing GPs, with fewer new managers than previously because we believe that will help create a stronger industry that can focus on both financial and developmental outcomes.

Or, look at IFC’s recent report on EM PE funds in the era of Covid-19:

Fundraising in EMs is expected to become more challenging in the next two to three years, especially for funds targeting small and midsize companies. These funds will struggle to survive, while larger and more established funds will be less impacted but still need DFI support. The composition of the Limited Partner (LP) base in EMs will shift, with international institutional investors being constrained in their asset allocations to EMs. The life cycle of funds will see a lengthening in light of longer fundraising cycles and longer investee holding periods due to challenges in achieving exits.

(Also, Actis is eschewing the traditional PE model in favor of hard assets.)

Will there be traditional PE fund managers that raise capital in EM?

Of course.

But a vibrant, growing industry?

Forget about it.

There are capacity constraints, and there are different structures for investing in EM private companies.

Work on a Portico Pivot™️ is underway. 

* * *

 I recently recorded a podcast episode about private equity in Russia. I hope we get to release it.

During the conversation, the guest and I got to talking about the transition from the Soviet Union to what came after, and how generations experienced the shift differently. For instance, people aged 40+ often had difficulty adjusting to new conditions, while younger people benefited from a lack of habits and legacy thinking that communism had engrained in the older generations.

The discussion reminded me of a passage from Sebastian Haffner’s Defying Hitler. Recalling events in Germany in 1923, Haffner wrote:

The old and unworldly had the worst of it. Many were driven to begging, many to suicide. The young and quick-witted did well. Overnight they became free, rich, and independent. It was a situation in which mental inertia and reliance on past experience were punished by starvation and death, but rapid appraisal of new situations and speed of reaction were rewarded with sudden, vast riches.

Speaking of Weimar, the feeling that the United States is on the cusp of a crucible is palpable.

It’s banal to say that Covid-19 has been an accelerant for long-standing trends, but in the last couple of months it feels as if the fissures have broken open.

Perhaps it’s the paranoia of a c. 40-year-old American who fears getting caught flat-footed, but the international system that has defined my existence is gone, and it’s not going to be reclaimed.

The urgency to adapt is acute.

 * * *

If you are a U.S. citizen, please vote in this year’s election.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3rd.

The website www.vote.org is helpful for finding out which voting options are available in your locality (e.g., early in-person, absentee by mail), and locating your polling place. 

Vote!

Alla prossima,
Mike


Asia

Two recent pieces on private equity in Asia caught my eye. 

1.McKinsey & Company interview with Baring Private Equity Asia Founding Partner Jean Eric Salata.

Insightful take on the deepening of the Asian market — not only in terms of the strategies and sectors that attract investment, but also in terms of the evolution of human capital and the professionalization of asset management firms. Particularly thoughtful on the necessity of infusing digital capabilities throughout one’s operations and the investment cycle.

2. BCG report on The Promise for Private Equity in Asia-Pacific

There’s not much new in it, candidly, but it rightly points out the heterogeneity of investors in private markets, and it has a useful data nugget: “As of 2018, China, India, South Korea, and Thailand all ranked in the top 10 countries globally for number of family-owned businesses with market capitalization of over $250 million.”

While Portico has been cautious on investor exuberance toward mega-cap Asia and China-dedicated funds — and we watch the dogpile into Jio / Reliance Retail quizzically — the region is core.

On this point, Benedict Evans put out a thought-provoking essay on “The End of the American Internet.” Upwards of 90% of internet users are outside of the United States; China and India have 5x as many smartphones as the USA; and, the “RoW” (largely China) accounts for nearly half of global venture investment.


Someplace Else

The placement agent Eaton Partners conducted an LP Pulse Survey in September. They asked LPs which region is home to the best private market opportunities. 

The verdict: 

  • North America — 68%
  • Europe — 18%
  • Asia — 14%
  • “Someplace else” — 0%

Josh Lerner on U.S. Venture

One of the assertions I put forward last year is that the institutionalization of U.S. venture capital is leading to less innovation.

Josh Lerner and Ramana Nanda published a paper over the summer that argues a similar point. In short:

Three issues are particularly concerning to us: 1) the very narrow band of technological innovations that fit the requirements of institutional venture capital investors; 2) the relatively small number of venture capital investors who hold and shape the direction of a substantial fraction of capital that is deployed into financing radical technological change; and 3) the relaxation in recent years of the intense emphasis on corporate governance by venture capital firms.


Stash

Sometimes it’s fun to contemplate the embedded assumptions amongst the venture community.
 
For instance, Anish Acharya at Andreessen Horowitz wrote a blurb about Stash, a fintech startup that enables people to earn fractional shares as a reward when they use the Stash debit card at a merchant (i.e., you get a slice of Starbucks stock when you purchase a pumpkin spice latte or whatever).
 
Acharya believes bringing the ‘intelligent default’ to the 401(k) — making it opt-out as opposed to opt-in — is “one of the biggest forces for financial progress.”
 
Oodles of assumptions about financialization, ‘nudge’ psychology, etc.
 
Anyway, Stash is positioned as a way to help regular people build wealth … by spending their money. (There’s a monthly fee of $1 to $9, btw).
 
At first glance, this seems like a good idea. Rather than points or cash back, why not acquire a fraction of a share of stock?
 
But if you think about it for a minute longer, you’ll realize that it ‘nudges’ consumer spending toward large, publicly listed companies, leaving smaller, privately held businesses in a lurch.


From the Bookshelf

The boy thought he smelled wet ash on the wind. He went up the road and come dragging back a piece of plywood from the roadside trash and he drove sticks into the ground with a rock and made of the plywood a rickety leanto but in the end it didnt rain. He left the flarepistol and took the revolver with him and he scoured the countryside for anything to eat but he came back emptyhanded. The man took his hand, wheezing. You need to go on, he said. I cant go with you. You need to keep going. You dont know what might be down the road. We were always lucky. You’ll be lucky again. You’ll see. Just go. It’s all right.

I cant.

It’s all right. This has been a long time coming. Now it’s here. Keep going south. Do everything the way we did it.

You’re going to be okay, Papa. You have to.

No I’m not. Keep the gun with you at all times. You need to find the good guys but you cant take any chances. No chances. Do you hear?

I want to be with you.

You cant.

Please.

You cant. You have to carry the fire.

I dont know how to.

Yes you do.

Is it real? The fire?

Yes it is.

Where is it? I dont know where it is.

Yes you do. It’s inside you. It was always there. I can see it.

Just take me with you. Please.

I cant.

Please, Papa.

I cant. I cant hold my son dead in my arms. I thought I could but I cant.

You said you wouldnt ever leave me.

I know. I’m sorry. You have my whole heart. You always did. You’re the best guy. You always were. If I’m not here you can still talk to me. You can talk to me and I’ll talk to you. You’ll see.


Will I hear you?

Yes. You will. You have to make it like talk that you imagine. And you’ll hear me. You have to practice. Just don’t give up. Okay?

— Cormac McCarthy, The Road (Vintage: 2006)


Haven’t signed up for our newsletter yet? Sign up now.

# # #

The information presented in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Portico Advisers does not undertake to update this material and the opinions and conclusions contained herein may change without notice. Portico Advisers does not make any warranty that the information in this newsletter is error-free, omission-free, complete, accurate, or reliable. Nothing contained in this newsletter should be construed as legal, tax, securities, or investment advice.

Copyright © by Portico Advisers, LLC 2020, all rights reserved.

Dumb Money

In last month’s newsletter, I mentioned that I would be speaking at a conference with a bunch of LPs on the topic of “Global Markets for Buyouts and VC”. I closed saying, “Here’s hoping for an interactive, no-holds-barred session.”

Suffice it to say that my hopes materialized. While discussing the performance of EM PE, one LP said:

The issue with emerging markets is these funds have often been growth equity with minority stakes. The teams have been heavy on investment bankers who don’t know how to do deals. In emerging markets, private equity is the dumb money.

Dang.

Another discussion revolved around whether EM PE is in a cyclical downturn or a structural one. LPs’ commitments are generally pro-cyclical and many herd into markets / strategies at the same time, with predictable results. If so, then—ceteris paribus—the trickle of capital flowing to EMs (apart from mega-cap Asia … more on that below) may well signal a cyclical bottoming. As one conference delegate argued, now would present an optimal time to adopt a contrarian strategy and lean into EM PE.

Two brief rejoinders: First, this is not what LPs are saying they’ll do:

LP Sentiment

Second, this just isn’t how private markets work. Even if you wanted to do so, you can’t buy the index. You have to choose a manager.

Industry cycles and macro need to be disentangled. With that in mind, my view is that the quality of the managers in the market at a given time drives flows more than macro. The nuance is that fundraising is a bit of a coincident indicator: the managers with whom LPs wish to invest frequently come to market (a) at the same time; and, (b) when investor sentiment toward the jurisdiction in question is hot.

Alas, I’m still in the camp of this being a structural downturn. A few reasons I’ve pondered this week include:

  1. “Dumb Money”!
  2. David Swensen’s recent remark that “the breadth of emerging markets that we were interested in 20 years ago has narrowed dramatically.”
  3. DFIs, which historically have supported the development of the industry, are increasingly committing to later, larger funds.
  4. The ongoing emergence of local, non-PE investors that don’t face the same return hurdles / horizons creates greater competition for quality deals.
  5. Tech is disrupting everything; in markets with fewer, ephemeral exit channels, this is a big problem.

More importantly, Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. One of the great bits of having a toddler is that I’m reminded daily that I have a blessed life. Thank you for being a part of it, and for welcoming this newsletter into your busy day!

Alla prossima,
Mike

The Great Wall of Capital

Fundraising for buyouts in Asia is robusto:

Seven funds. $34 billion. There are others.

That is a lot of granola; it’s on par with the aggregate hauls for EM PE funds in each of the last two years.

In other news, KKR inked a deal this month with Great Wall International to bring leveraged loans to China. There’s a joke in here about Barbarians at the Gate, but I’ll stop.

LP Views on Latin America

LAVCA teamed up with Cambridge Associates for the second time on their annual LP opinion survey. There are some interesting findings the study, such as the discovery that 53% of LPs considering a first investment in Latin America view currency volatility as the biggest impediment to investing in the region. (Recency bias?)

My favorite exhibit explores LPs’ preferred means of accessing LatAm:

LAVCA.jpeg

  • Most LPs plan to access LatAm via pan-regional funds
  • Brazil is the country of the future …
  • Proportionally, more Latin American LPs expect to access LatAm PE via global funds than international LPs (statistically insignificant, but the fact that they’re close strikes me as interesting)

Facebank

The societal parasite that is Facebook is entering the small business lending space, starting with merchant cash advances. This is a fairly fascinating development. The company has already effectively become the Internet for a large number of people; will it become a lender of first resort for small businesses? Given the vast swathes of data that Facebook collects, one might surmise that they could develop an edge in credit scoring that could benefit businesses with lower rates and Facebook with a large loan book. My interest is piqued.

In related news, EMPEA’s Q3 data show that capital invested in fintech companies through September ($416M) has already exceeded last year’s total ($379M). Aggregate fintech deal value is on track to match or exceed those for 2014 ($470M) and 2015 ($509M).

Turkey Resurgent?

Every so often, a leader steps up and makes a bold pronouncement, and market sentiment shifts. Think of Warren Buffet going long Goldman in the depths of the crisis, or Jamie Dimon plunking $26 million of his own cash on JPM shares in February 2016 (now up ~70%).

Has Seymur Tari of Turkven made a gambit to shift opinion in Turkey? Following a summer IPO of jeans retailer Mavi, Tari appears to be getting bulled-up on the market. Last month, Tari announced that the firm plans to list Medical Park Group in an offering that could fetch $1B. (Maybe?) Moreover, Turkven is planning to execute “three to four acquisitions of $50-400 million each in 2018 … and to start a new fund of more than $1 billion in one or two years,” according to Reuters.

I admire the verve. Turkey has been in the doldrums, and local business and consumer sentiment has been in a downtrend for seven years (see below). Is the tide turning?

Turkey2

From the Bookshelf

The quality of ideas seems to play a minor role in mass movement leadership. What counts is the arrogant gesture, the complete disregard of the opinion of others, the singlehanded defiance of the world.

Charlatanism of some degree is indispensable to effective leadership. There can be no mass movement without some deliberate misrepresentation of facts.

— Eric Hoffer, The True Believer (Perennial: 1966).

# # #

Haven’t signed up for our newsletter yet? Sign up now.

# # #

The information presented in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Portico Advisers does not undertake to update this material and the opinions and conclusions contained herein may change without notice. Portico Advisers does not make any warranty that the information in this newsletter is error-free, omission-free, complete, accurate, or reliable. Nothing contained in this newsletter should be construed as legal, tax, securities, or investment advice.

 

Copyright © by Portico Advisers, LLC 2017, all rights reserved. 

 

More Dickensian by the Day

Greetings from Jakarta, home to 30 million people (metro) and half as many cars, judging by traffic. I’m nearly halfway through a circuit of Southeast Asia, where I’ve been meeting with some great managers and discussing the evolution of the region’s private markets landscape.

Over the last five years, LPs have consistently ranked Southeast Asia as one of the top two most-attractive markets for GP investment. Yet this year’s Global LP Survey from EMPEA highlights the perennial disconnect:

  • 41% of respondents plan to begin or expand their commitments to Southeast Asia over the next two years;
  • However, 32% say a limited number of established fund managers deters them from investing in the region (the highest percentage of any EM region); and,
  • 25% say the scale of the opportunity to invest is too small (also the highest percentage across all EMs).

We share a few our of key takeaways from EMPEA’s survey below, but the fundraising environment is becoming more Dickensian by the day.

In any event, I’m off for a weekend in Siem Reap to admire what Norman Lewis described as “probably the most spectacular man-made remains in the world.” Then, I’ll be heading to Ho Chi Minh City for AVCJ’s conference. Let me know if you’re in town.

If you’re interested in having Portico produce a report on the private markets landscape in Southeast Asia, then please drop me a line.

Best wishes,
Mike

A Grim LP Survey

Some depressing reading is on offer in EMPEA’s 2017 Global LP Survey. There are a number of interesting nuggets throughout the report, but I came away with three big takeaways:

  • Talk to the hand — The pie of capital earmarked for EM PE is shrinking. To wit, 25% of LPs plan to decrease the proportion of their PE allocation targeted to EMs over the next two years; this figure jumps to 36% for LPs that have been active in EM PE for more than 15 years.
  • Show me the money — The percentage of LPs expecting at least 16% net from their EM PE portfolios has continuously declined over the last five years: from 61% in 2013 to 43% in 2017. It’s also the first year that this figure dipped below 50%.Though only 17% of respondents expect ≥ 16% net from their developed markets portfolios, I suspect the drivers of these expectations are different: in EMs, it’s a lack of distributions coupled with FX, while in DMs, a surfeit of capital and leverage is fueling frothy entry valuations.
  • Chasing the rabbit — It’s hard not to think LPs are exhibiting some procyclical behavior: India rings in as the most attractive market while Brazil languishes at sixth; health care and consumer goods / services rank as the most attractive sectors.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

A Platinum Lining?

I always make time to read what KKR’s Henry McVey has to say about the markets, and his latest report, The Ultra High Net Worth Investor: Coming of Age, is no exception.

Whereas family offices constituted 6% of the respondent base of EMPEA’s LP Survey (call it 7 or 8 respondents?), KKR surveyed over 50 Ultra High Net Worth clients (defined as investors with ≥ $30m in investable assets and including family offices). The findings should provide a modicum of encouragement to private markets fund managers, as UHNW investors have a tendency to adopt a genuinely long-term perspective, and embrace alternative assets (see charts below).

Money shot: The stock of global HNW assets stands at $60 trillion with a 5-year CAGR of 7.4%, compared to global pension assets of $36.4 trillion and a 5-year CAGR of 5.8%.

KKRUHNW

Ahlan, Bimbo!

The Mexican behemoth Grupo Bimbo has acquired Moroccan baked goods company Groupe Adghal as its toehold in Africa. Three thoughts:

  1. Morocco continues to serve as a popular entrepôt for PEs and corporates to access Sub-Saharan African markets.
  2. Bimbo’s ambitions are truly global. They’ve swallowed up Thomas’ English Muffins, Entenmann’s, Arnold Bread, Sara Lee, and Boboli Pizza north of the border (wall?), and they’re planning to ramp up a growth through acquisition strategy in China.
  3. Personally, my heart warms at the prospect of children around the world sinking their teeth into a sleeve of ¡Sponch! cakes.

Speaking of Hispanophone companies pursuing acquisitions in Africa, there was a super interesting announcement from Helios Investment Partners and the Spanish multinational GBfoods earlier this month. The firms are pursuing a joint venture to create a leading pan-African FMCG franchise. I think we’ll continue to see PE firms teaming with multinationals to de-risk acquisitions and validate their entry into new markets; it’s a compelling proposition.

Out of curiosity, I investigated the number of Hispanophone acquisitions in Africa (excluding our friends at Mediterrania Capital Partners). Across 30 deals since 2008, six have been in metals and mining, and four in F&B. Small volumes, but the trend is up and to the right (see chart below).

May 2017 Hispanophone Exhibits

The Saga Continues

Baring Private Equity Asia and CPPIB announced that they are taking Nord Anglia private for $4.3B. Baring originally took the company private in 2008, led the firm through a $350m IPO in 2014, and a $170m follow-on issuance in 2015. Over the last four years, Nord Anglia executed at least seven acquisitions, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon. The company’s revenues grew from $323.7m in 2013 to $856m in 2016, with net income swinging from a loss of $23.3m to earnings of $47.1 over the period (and posting a 17% ROE in 2016).

Fashionably Late?

Blackstone has decided to join the private debt party in India. Apollo (through a JV with ICICI Ventures), Baring Private Equity Asia, Clearwater Capital, KKR, and Piramal—among others—have been in the mix for some time. It’s a huge market, but one wonders if the bar’s running out of elbow room.

From the Bookshelf

A seed that sprouts at the foot of its parent tree remains stunted until it is transplanted … Every human being, when the time comes, has to depart and seek his fulfillment in his own way.

— R.K. Narayan (trans.), The Ramayana (Penguin: 1987).

# # #

Haven’t signed up for our newsletter yet? Sign up now.

# # #

The information presented in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Portico Advisers does not undertake to update this material and the opinions and conclusions contained herein may change without notice. Portico Advisers does not make any warranty that the information in this newsletter is error-free, omission-free, complete, accurate, or reliable. Nothing contained in this newsletter should be construed as legal, tax, securities, or investment advice.

Copyright © by Portico Advisers, LLC 2017, all rights reserved.