I’ve been meditating on transparency and governance rather frequently of late. Not out of a sense of righteousness, mind you, but largely because they are inescapable in my morning reading of the newspaper: Abraaj, Norway (both discussed below), FacebookMartin SorrellSean Hannity, &c.

The only firm conclusion I’ve reached is that quality governance — corporate or otherwise — is the most underappreciated necessity. A world awash in capital is also a world awash in unaccountable bullshit. People just don’t seem keen to ask — let alone field — questions when the money’s rolling in. Plus ça change …

Say what you will about younger generations, but they’re pretty quick to raise the BS flag and ask uncomfortable questions (so much so that it has become a meme, apparently). I was reminded of this recently while giving a guest lecture at UVA’s McIntire School of Commerce. The students were super sharp, and they asked hard-hitting questions … including one that made me ponder some life choices.

In short, they’re awesome. They rekindled my belief that the future is going to be amazing. Hopefully their incessant questioning will continue as they assume positions of leadership, thus contributing to more transparent and accountable governance. On verra bien …

Speaking of the future, Portico’s first product launch is in the works. We’re making it easier than ever for first- (and second-, and third-, &c.) time funds to produce institutional-quality marketing materials, at a price point that delivers enormous value. Stay tuned!

Finally, I’m really looking forward to IFC’s Global Private Equity Conference next month (hosted in association with EMPEA). It’s the 20th anniversary of the event and it should be a good one. I’m excited to reconnect with friends and make new connections. Drop me a line if you’re planning to attend.

If you haven’t registered, you may learn more about the event at this link. Hope to see you there!

Alla prossima,
Mike

GPEC Banner

Abraaj: Fin?

[This is the third — and final — in a series; see Part I and Part Deux]

“What a mess. I’m left wondering if investors in the firm’s funds will seek (a) new GP(s) to manage out the assets.”

So read the conclusion to my take on the drama at Abraaj in last month’s newsletter.

I don’t know whether the investors drove the process, but Houlihan Lokey was brought in to find a solution to the Abraaj Growth Markets Health Fund debacle, and the FT reports that Abraaj subsequently offered to step down as manager of the fund. An interim manager is reportedly in the cards until a permanent replacement / solution is found.

A few thoughts / observations:

  • Key Person Provisions — More senior departures were reported over the last month, including those of Sev Vettivetpillai and Mustafa Abdel-Wadood, both of whom reportedly attempted to resign late last year but were asked to stay. The Wall Street Journal reports that “the firm now has lost half its managing partners and a third of its partners in the past year.” At this point, given the flood of senior departures, it stands to reason that Key Person termination provisions likely have been triggered across several Abraaj funds. If so, then I imagine investors will be looking for (a) new GP(s) to manage out the assets.
  • Sharks Circling — The firm is reportedly considering a sale of its private equity business to raise cash, and reducing headcount by 15% to cut costs. It is also moving forward with its planned listing of the South African FMCG company Libstar.
    Kenyan sources report that the firm is evaluating a sale of its stake in Nairobi Java House, which it acquired from ECP last year. (I talked about the deal here). The same article reports that sales of Avenue Hospital, Brookside Dairies, and Seven Seas Technologies may be under consideration as well. With all these headlines, management teams and fund managers may be sensing an opportune moment to scoop up shares at a discount from a stressed seller.
  • Exit Closed — In recent years, Abraaj had become an active buyer of PE-backed companies, particularly in Africa (e.g., Java House, Libstar, Mouka). Had its $6 billion mega fund come to market, I imagine Abraaj would have become a sought-after exit channel for GPs. In a way, it could have become to EM private markets what the SoftBank Vision Fund is to venture investors: a deus ex machina of liquidity.
  • &c. — Its portfolio company Stanford Marine has reportedly breached covenants and is seeking to restructure $325 million in debt. Reuters reports that it is seeking repayment of $12.4 million in loans to Nigeria’s C&I Leasing. Deloitte has been called in to look into its governance and control issues. &c.

I’m tired of writing about Abraaj. I don’t plan on including anything about the firm in next month’s newsletter.

The news articles are likely to keep coming, though, and the developments over the last month suggest that it will take a long time to clean up the detritus from this unfortunate turn of events. Here’s hoping that it doesn’t contribute to investors’ exodus from EM private markets altogether.

Norway: Part Deux

In January’s newsletter, we mentioned that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund had submitted a recommendation to the finance ministry that it be allowed to invest in and alongside private equity funds. At the time, we held out a grandiose vision of a world in which the fund might build a genuinely differentiated approach to EM private markets.

Well, the finance ministry has issued its report, and fund managers’ hopes for a veritable tsunami of cash have been put on hold.

Indefinitely.

The preliminary, unofficial translation of the report provided a fairly damning assessment of the asset class’s fees and opacity:

Low costs are characteristic of the GPFG. External equity management costs in the listed market are about 0.5 percent … measured relative to assets under management. In comparison, the annual cost of investing in private equity funds can be estimated at about 6 percent of assets under management …

Transparency is an important prerequisite for broad support for, and confidence in, the management of the GPFG. Many private equity funds disclose little information about their activities …

High prospective returns aren’t a sufficient argument for new money to come into the asset class — especially when its citizens’ savings. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the industry will not thrive without trust, transparency, and quality corporate governance.

Bain & Co.

Two findings jumped out at me from Bain & Co.’s Global Private Equity Report 2018:

  1. Entry pricing is … inauspicious.As of year-end 2016, the percentage of deals priced at <7x EBITDA (~10%) was the lowest it had been since at least 2007, while 54% of deals were done for >11x EBITDA (compared to ~35% in 2007). “Our presumption is that we’ll be exiting at smaller multiples,” says Alan Jones of Morgan Stanley Global Private Equity. Agree
  2. Long-hold funds can outperform. Bain ran an analysis comparing a theoretical long-hold fund selling an investment after 24 years against a buyout fund selling four successive companies over the same period. Their finding: “By eliminating transaction fees, deferring capital gains taxation and keeping capital fully invested, the long-hold fund outperforms the short-duration fund by almost two times on an after-tax basis.” [emphasis added]

At Portico, we’re privileged to work with firms that are pursuing non-traditional and longer hold strategies. We think it’s only a matter of time before more investors come to see the benefits of these approaches.

Grab Bag

  • Into Africa—The FT reports that the EBRD is considering an expansion into Sub-Saharan Africa. The politics of getting this approved might be tricky, but EBRD could do a lot of good on the continent. 🤞
  • India — IFC’s Ralph Keitel gives a masterclass on PE in India in this interview.
  • Management Fees— Dave Richards of Capria has an interesting view on how GPs should be determining their management fees. Hint: they should be predictable and budgeted, rather than a percentage of committed / invested capital.
  • Theranos— “It has been pretty obvious for a few years now that Theranos Inc. was a huge fraud.” Matt Levine’s take on the Blood Unicorn, Elasmotherium haimatos. And, its solicitation for cash after its CEO settled fraud charges?

From the Bookshelf

Make friends with those who are good and true, not those who are bad and false.

— Eknath Easwaran (trans.), The Dhammapada (Nilgiri Press: 2007).

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